Opinion

Why we should care if Arctic ice melts

11/4/2009 8:05:02 AM

By Art Reckinger

Irreversibility and Irrevocability tend to be bothersome words. They imply that no matter what is done, there is no return. Global Warming is due to increasing Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and is raising the world temperatures, irreversibly. The world ice masses are melting more rapidly every day, and the melt appears Irrevocable.

Susan Solomon, et al, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a part of NASA, in their article "Irreversible Climate Change due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions," tell us that even after CO2 emissions are stopped, most of the atmospheric CO2 will last for thousands of years.

A short study of scientific papers will convince most that there are no natural processes that will remove the massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere that we have spent over 100 years emitting.

Nearly everyone has heard that the world ice masses, in particular the Arctic, are melting and doing so way faster than predicted (as much as three times faster.) With irreversible temperature increases, the world ice masses are going to irrevocably continue to melt, even if we were to immediately and successfully end all CO2 emissions.

Why should we care if the Arctic melts? Consider the following thought: as the Arctic melts, a major reflector (90 percent) of the sun's heat disappears, which in turn will cause the water to absorb 80-90 percent of the incident heat.

Further, the Arctic ice, which is floating in the Arctic Ocean, moderates the regional temperature, including that of Greenland. The Arctic, because it is already ice in the punch bowl, will only contribute 1.5 feet to ocean rise. But Greenland, because it is ice on a rock, will contribute over 20 feet of ocean rise.

Think, if just the Arctic and only 20 percent of the on-land ice of Greenland melts, we have over a 6-foot ocean rise. Now, consider this fact: 60 million U.S. citizens live in the 0-6 foot band above mean sea level. THAT is why we should care if the Arctic melts.

Every credible scientific paper on the melting world ice says that the melt and its effect is greatly underestimated and accelerating and, given the present direction of just slowing emissions, the rising water is inevitable. Thus a change in plans is in order.

We need to create the necessary conditions to slow the melting of the world ice masses and then to enable them to refreeze and re-grow by:

1) Developing the technology to remove massive amounts of atmospheric CO2 to reduce total atmospheric CO2 levels, in turn lowering world temperatures.

2) Much more rapidly eliminating CO2 emissions.

3) Developing the technology to directly lower the temperature in selected global areas to stop the melt and enable the re-freeze.

Yes, it will be expensive, but so will progressively moving hundreds of million of our citizens out of harm's way.

Art Reckinger of Rochester is a retired IBM engineer.

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