By Matthew Stolle
Post-Bulletin, Rochester MN
National business surveys may be predicting a bah-humbug holiday shopping season, but business owner Miranda Gray-Burlingame, of Kellogg, isn't sharing in the Scrooge-like gloom.
"It should be a fantastic holiday season," says the part-owner of Lark Toys in Kellogg, a children's wonderland of toys and games, ice cream and candy, and a hand-carved carousel. "We're going to have a big one."
Such optimism stands in contrast to the dour predictions coming from retail and business organizations. The latest indicator: The Business Conditions Index for Midwest America, a survey of nine Midwest and Plains states including Minnesota, predicted a 1.6 percent decline in sales from last year.
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Safe-shopping tips
• Don't flash your cash. If you have a wad a bills, take out a few at a time.
• Keep your receipts.
• Keep your eyes on your kids. Educate them to seek out a security or police officer or the store service center if you're separated.
• Don't drag around tons of packages. Take them back to your car from time to time. Put them in the trunk, not the back seat.
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That projected drop follows last year's calamitous holiday season, when retail spending fell by 3.4 percent. It was the first drop recorded by the National Retail Federation since it began tracking such data in 1992.
Gray-Burlingame's bullishness isn't completely inexplicable. Even in a rough economy, she explains, parents still want their children to have a Christmas with "meaningful" toys and games.
"They may choose something smaller or a little less expensive than what they would in a boom year, but the commitment to providing for their children doesn't go away," she said.
Retailers a little less optimistic
At a national level, business observers are less sanguine. Buzz Anderson, president of the Minnesota Retailers Association, described the general mood of shoppers as cautious. Unemployment hovers around 10 percent, and consumers still have their feet on the spending brakes, a trend reflected in savings rates that have climbed to historic highs.
"How is it going to turn out? I think it's going to be mixed," Anderson said.
This is a critical time for retailers. Approximately 25 percent to 40 percent of their annual income comes from the holiday shopping season.
The National Retail Federation is predicting a 1 percent drop in sales over last year, based on polling of more than 8,000 people. The survey is usually "very accurate," but last year's appalling numbers took even seasoned observers by surprise.
"We've either hit bottom or (are) close to hitting bottom, and we're climbing our way out," he said.
Conscious of bargain hunters, retailers are hustling. They're rushing to decorate their stores in the hope of ringing up early sales through discounts and sales.
More emphasis is also being put on online sales to draw savvy online buyers. Also, gift cards are expected to be a big draw for shoppers not wanting to waste money on unwanted gifts, Anderson said.
He suggested Rochester may be insulated from the economy's lethargy, given its status as a worldwide destination and hub of a thriving medical community.
Rochester attitude
Certainly, local retailers are sounding that way. At the Tangerine gift store in downtown Rochester, owner Joan Blakley-McCoy says she hasn't seen any evidence of this recession. Although work on putting up Christmas decorations and displays isn't finished, the store is already selling "things left and right."
"I can't say we hit a recession at all," Blakley-McCoy said.
Kevin Duckett, owner of the Amish Store in Rochester, an outlet that specializes in home-decor items, said he bought less product for the Christmas season then he normally does. Now he frets that he didn't buy enough. Sales for September and October were the best the store has seen since it opened.
Duckett was forthright when asked why he thought sales had been so brisk recently: "Truth -- how the hell do I know?"
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