Local Business

Economists scan jobs data, seeking signs of hope

11/7/2009 9:00:02 AM

By Peter S. Goodman

New York Times News Service 

As the U.S. unemployment rate surged to 10.2 percent in October, reaching double digits for the first time in 26 years, it suddenly seemed possible that the nation might yet confront the worst joblessness since the Great Depression.

In the six decades since the government began compiling such data, the highest level of unemployment came at the end of 1982, when it hit 10.8 percent. Despite the widespread assumption that the recession has already ended, and even as the economy has resumed growing, the government's latest snapshot of the labor market released Friday testified to the uncomfortable truth that expansion had yet to translate into jobs.

The sharp rise in unemployment -- which climbed from 9.8 percent in September, as the nation lost another 190,000 net jobs -- intensified pressure on the Obama administration to show results from the $787 billion package of spending measures unleashed early this year to spur the economy.

On Friday, President Barack Obama signed into law a bill that that extends both unemployment benefits and temporary tax credits for home buyers, adding that he was on the lookout for other ways to generate job growth.

Despite the headline-grabbing unemployment number, economists sifting through the details of the Labor Department's report found several reasons to take comfort.

The pace at which jobs are disappearing continued to taper off in October. Between November 2008 and April 2009 -- amid the paralyzing fear that accompanied the collapse of prominent financial institutions like Lehman Brothers -- the economy shed an average of 645,000 jobs a month. Between May and July, the pace dropped to an average monthly loss of 357,000 jobs. Over the last three reports, average monthly job losses have slipped to 188,000, after factoring in upward revisions to the data for August and September.

Temporary workers increased by 44,000 in October, adding to gains in the previous two months -- an apparent sign that businesses had squeezed as much production as they could out of their existing work forces and felt the need to bring in more people.

The pain has fallen harder on men, among whom unemployment reached 10.7 percent in October, compared with 8.1 percent among women. The unemployment rate for African-American men reached 17.1 percent.

Unemployment reached 9.5 percent among white Americans, 13.1 percent among Hispanics and 27.6 among teenagers.

Health care, a rare bright spot, added 29,000 jobs in October. Construction and manufacturing led the way, losing 62,000 and 61,000 jobs respectively.

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