Wasde Report 717
WASHINGTON — USDA last week released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
WHEAT: U.S. 2008/09 wheat supplies are projected higher this month on higher carry-in and production. Beginning stocks were raised 52 million bushels based on June 1 stocks. Winter wheat production is forecast up 47 million bushels mostly on higher soft red production.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn ending stocks are projected higher this month as higher carry-in and reductions in food, seed, and industrial use more than offset lower production and higher feed and residual use. Harvested area is raised 100,000 acres based on the June 30 Acreage report. Production, however, is projected 20 million bushels lower at 11.715 billion as the projected yield is lowered 0.5 bushels per acre. Heavy June rains and flooding reduced the share of harvested area in the higher-yielding Corn Belt states. Feed and residual use was raised 50 million bushels based on higher expected pork and poultry production in the first half of the 2008/09 marketing year. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 65 million bushels. The 2008/09 marketing year average price received by producers is projected at $5.50 to $6.50 per bushel, up 20 cents on each end of the range.
The 2007/08 marketing year price for corn is unchanged this month at $4.25-$4.45 per bushel.
Global 2008/09 coarse grain production is raised 1.5 million tons this month reflecting higher corn and barley production.
World coarse grain consumption for 2008/09 is increased 3.5 million tons as higher expected foreign consumption, again this month, more than offsets reduced U. S. corn use.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 4.9 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last year. Lower soybean stocks account for most of the reduction. Soybean production is projected at 3 billion bushels, down 105 million bushels due to reduced harvested area and yield. The soybean yield is projected at 41.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from last month, due to delayed planting and crop emergence resulting from excessive moisture through June.
Prices for soybeans and soybean products are all raised this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2008/09 is projected at $12-$13.50, up $1 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355 to $415 per short ton, up $60 on both ends. Soybean oil prices are projected at 59-63 cents per pound, up 7 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2008/09 is reduced 2 million tons to 417.3 million tons.
U.S. soybean exports for 2007/08 are projected at 1.145 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY AND DAIRY: The total U.S. meat production forecast for 2008 is fractionally lower as reduced beef production offsets increased production of pork and broilers. Beef production is forecast lower as cattle placements and marketings have been lower than expected.
The beef forecast is unchanged from last month as producers are expected to respond to higher feed prices by placing cattle into feedlots at heavier weights.
The pork production forecast is raised from last month. Although producers intend to farrow fewer sows during the second half of 2008 compared with 2007, higher-than-expected pigs per litter will partly offset farrowing declines and result in more available hogs for first-half 2009 slaughter compared to last month. Expectations of continued reductions in sows farrowing in first-half 2009 will likely result in lower slaughter in the latter part of the year. Hog carcass weights are expected to be lighter as producers respond to high feed costs by marketing hogs as quickly as possible.
Meat export forecasts for 2008 and 2009 are raised from last month, reflecting higher expected sales of both red meat and broiler meat in 2008, and higher beef and pork exports in 2009.
Milk production forecasts for 2008 are increased due to slightly higher forecast cow numbers and slightly stronger growth in milk per cow. However, higher feed prices are expected to largely offset higher milk prices and the production forecast for 2009 is unchanged.
Commercial exports of dairy products in both 2008 and 2009 are raised from last month as foreign demand remains strong.
For 2009, slow growth in milk production and expectations of relatively strong demand are expected to support a higher cheese price forecast.
Butter, non-fat dry milk, and whey price forecasts are unchanged. The Class III price forecast is raised to reflect higher cheese prices; the Class IV price forecast is unchanged. The all-milk price is forecast higher this month, averaging $18.95 to $19.25 in 2008 and $18.60 to $19.60 in 2009. These forecasts, if realized, will result in milk prices at or near record levels since 2007.