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By Ed McNamara
Newsday
(MCT)
(Ed McNamara's Kentucky Derby horse-by-horse analysis)
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AMERICAN LION
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Jockey: David Flores
Post: 7
Odds: 30-1
Last three: 1-4-3
California-based colt led all the way in very weak Illinois Derby, his dirt debut. Seriously outclassed in field overloaded with better speed types.
AWESOME ACT
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Trainer: Jeremy Noseda
Jockey: Julian Leparoux
Post: 16
Odds: 10-1
Last three: 3-1-4
Had an eventful trip when third in the Wood. Showed strong closing punch winning dirt debut in the Gotham. Noseda expected him to regress in the Wood, and he lost a shoe early on and didn't relax. Off-the-pace style suits speed-packed field.
BACKTALK
Trainer: Tom Amoss
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Jockey: Miguel Mena
Post: 18
Odds: 50-1
Last three: 3-1-8
Winless past a mile and showed little when a far-back third in poor Illinois Derby; overmatched against top 3-year-olds.
CONVEYANCE
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Rider: Martin Garcia
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Post: 12
Odds: 12-1
Last three: 2-1-1
One of many need-to-lead types, but he's 4-for-5 and classier than most of them. First defeat was a close second last time in the Sunland Park Derby. Should be near the front for a mile or so, but after that?
DEAN'S KITTEN
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Post: 8
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Odds: 50-1
Last three: 1-2-4
Was far back only time on dirt. Beat third-rate group easily in Lane's End at synthetic Turfway, but wouldn't read much into that. Can't recommend.
DEVIL MAY CARE
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Post: 11
Odds: 10-1
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Last three: 1-5-11
Filly rallied powerfully to win the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream and worked brilliantly Saturday at Churchill. Before Eskendereya was scratched, she seemed likely to go in Friday's Kentucky Oaks, and I don't know if she would have won that. She's no Eight Belles or Rags to Riches.
DISCREETLY MINE
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Post: 15
Odds: 30-1
Last three: 4-1-4
One of the lesser Pletcher entries, his best race was a wire job in weak Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Other win also was on the lead; looks like another pace casualty.
DUBLIN
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Terry Thompson
Post: 17
Odds: 12-1
Last three: 3-3-2
Can The Coach get his fifth Derby win and first since Charismatic in 1999? Lost five in a row but was a close third to Lookin At Lucky in last two. Doesn't seem to want to win; might fit underneath in exotics.
HOMEBOYKRIS
Trainer: Rick Dutrow
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Post: 19
Odds: 50-1
Colt partly owned by Joe Torre hasn't been around two turns this year and ran fifth in 1 1/8-mile Remsen last fall; many stamina doubts. Dutrow is a master, but trying the Derby off a nine-week layoff is wildly ambitious.
ICE BOX
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Post: 2
Odds: 10-1
Last three: 1-5-1
Came charging late to win substandard Florida Derby March 20. Zito won the Derby twice, but another prep might have helped. He's proven at 1 1/8 miles and pedigree says yes to 1¼, but the six-week layoff is a concern.
JACKSON BEND
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Mike Smith
Post: 13
Odds: 15-1
Second in his last two to the sidelined Eskendereya, but the problem is that the total margin was 18¼ lengths. Hasn't run a bad one (5-for-9, 4 seconds), but he'd need a giant leap forward.
LINE OF DAVID
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Post: 5
Odds: 30-1
Last three: 1-1-1
Hung on gamely to win Arkansas Derby, his first try on dirt. Very quick, but can't expect him to last 1¼ miles on a contested pace. Won his last three leading all the way, and those tactics won't work here.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Post: 1
Odds: 3-1
Last three: 3-1-2
Training sharply and his only dirt race, a rough-trip win in the Rebel, was very good. But rail forces very talented mid-pack type to gun immediately. Before the draw, I planned to pick him to win, but he faces a likely tough trip, and low price doesn't seem to justify the risk.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
Trainer: Alexis Barba
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Post: 9
Odds: 50-1
Last three: 6-1-3
Only one win (on grass) in eight starts, and showed little in Blue Grass. Seriously up against it in dirt debut for Barba, who's trying to become the first woman to train a Derby winner.
MISSION IMPAZIBLE
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Post: 14
Odds: 20-1
Last three: 1-4-2
Closed well in weak Louisiana Derby, only his second win in five career starts. Likely to improve, and off-the-pace style meshes well with likely quick pace, but 1¼ miles in top company might be too much, too soon.
NOBLE'S PROMISE
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Willie Martinez
Post: 3
Odds: 12-1
Last three: 5-2-2
Might be one of the weakest horses ever to earn more than $800,000. Pedigree says sprinter/miler, and he's lost four in a row around two turns. He's 0-for-2 on dirt but almost beat Lookin At Lucky twice, so he is outrunning his bloodlines.
PADDY O'PRADO
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Post: 10
Odds: 20-1
Last three: 2-1-3
Has done his best work on turf, consistent with his grassy pedigree. Tiring second on Polytrack in Blue Grass was OK, but he's never been on dirt since career debut in slop. Can't recommend.
SIDNEY'S CANDY
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Post: 20
Odds: 5-1
Last three: 1-1-1
He's 3-for-3 this year on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride, leading at every call. Never been more than 2 lengths off the pace and never run on dirt. Very talented, but he'll have to be used hard out of the gate to avoid being hung five-wide into the turn. Like Lookin At Lucky, hurt by the draw.
STATELY VICTOR
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Alan Garcia
Post: 6
Odds: 30-1
Last three: 1-5-8
His 40-1 Blue Grass shocker ended a five-race skid. A Polytrack fluke, or is he getting good at the right time? Has a terrific Derby pedigree (by Ghostzapper out of a Dynaformer mare), but he's 0-for-2, beaten 15 lengths, on dirt. Don't read too much into Keeneland form.
SUPER SAVER
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Post: 4
Odds: 15-1
Last three: 2-2-2
Almost caught Line of David at Oaklawn, and won two-turn stakes at 2 at Churchill. Could be pace-compromised because he's usually first or second. It's tough to learn a new trick in the Derby, but if Borel works out a stalking rail trip, you never know.
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